Archive for June, 2008

Jun 25 2008

Kahneman is Wrong: I’m the Proof

Published by Alex under Uncategorized

Remember Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman? His new research suggests that poor people enjoy more leisure time than rich people, who typically spend their time doing high-anxiety chores.

Well he should have included more journalists in his study. It seems as though I’m stressed a lot but have little to show for it!

Kahneman says: “The richest people spent nearly twice as much time as the poorest people in leisure activitities that were structured and often stressful — shopping, child care and exercise.”

I’m curious to know how Kahneman accounts for increased efficiency in the consumption of leisure activities afforded to the rich. Consider your TiVo: cuts down the time it takes to see the television you want to watch. What if you have a video-on-demand service? Does driving to the video store count then? There’s no doubt in my mind that the rich get more leisure for each minute they spend relaxing…It’ll be interesting to see how he deals with it in his research.

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Jun 14 2008

Cost Cutting vs. Fee Hikes

Published by Alex under Case Study, Investment

Would-be air travelers pick on price. The difference between a Delta flight and a US Airways or United flight is probably un-noticeable to someone who isn’t a frequent flier. That’s why websites such as Priceline, CheapTickets and Expedia proliferate and prosper.

But airlines are increasingly upping the fees on things that used to be amenities. We wrote last week on United’s move to charge people $15 to check a bag. Now comes news that US Airways will start charging $2 for a soda or bottled water on flights. Alcoholic drinks will go up to $7 a piece. There was a time when movies and headphones were free too. What’s next? You’ll have to pay $1.50 for a seatbelt? $3 for use of the overhead compartments?

Yes, the price of gasoline has gone up. No doubt the airlines suffer for this. Still, is it fair to hide a slew of fees under the price of a ticket? Can a reasonable person be expected to keep track of which airline charges for checked bags and calculate the appropriate step up in price attendant to the ticket?

I don’t like companies that play games like this. Life is hard enough without having to keep track of hidden fees and changing rules. Better to focus on costs than look for ways to gouge the unsuspecting. I can only imagine the unhappiness my parents would have flying with an airline that tried to charge for a glass of water on a flight. They’d never fly with that airline again. With good reason.

It makes Delta the more attractive for focusing on its expenses. Though I would not put it past the company to follow its peers down this perilous path.

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Jun 14 2008

Delta Layoffs a Good Sign

Published by Alex under Case Study, Investment

Corporate acquisitions seldom help the buying company. Promises of synergistic growth typically fall way, way short, studies show. However, if cost saving is the goal of a corporate acquisition, then the buyer’s stock goes up.

That’s why Delta’s move to cut 4,000 jobs is a positive sign for the impending deal with Northwestern. When cost cutting is on the brain, shares go up.

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Jun 12 2008

Chinese Alcohol Stocks

Published by Alex under Asia, Investment

The thinking goes like this: China’s middle class is growing and the Chinese people have more disposable income to make vice-related purchases. An abnormally high relative saving rate may be an indication of repressed demand for goods and services related to leisure consumption. The U.S.-China currency exchange is stable compared to the way the dollar is tanking against the Euro. And so called “vice” investments tend to be robust in good times and even better during a recession. So why not invest in Chinese brewers, vintners and distillers?

Here’s a few picks:

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited: Sells Tsingtao, Hans, Laoshan and Shanshui beers. Sold 5.05 million kiloliters of beer in 2007 both in China and abroad. The company is 27% owned by Anheuser-Busch and has 12.8% of the domestic beer market.

Recent News: Profits fell 19% due to increases in the corporate tax and disappointed analysts.

The problem: global barley prices are up 13 percent.

More to come.

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Jun 12 2008

United Ups Baggage Fees

Published by Alex under Case Study, Cost Benefit, Recession

V and I have a nuanced understanding of the commercial air travel market after two years of distance dating. Still, it’s stunning to see United adding a $15 charge for each piece of checked baggage on each domestic flight. CNN.com does the reporting.

There is, of course, a great tendency to abuse the checked baggage allowance. I’ve stood in line behind people looking to ship everything short of the kitchen sink.  But there are some things that you can only get across the country by checking in (wine) and this new policy certainly hurts a class of travelers.

The more deleterious effect may be on the struggle to fit carry-ons into the overhead compartments. I’ve seen some folks try to stuff small elephants above their heads.

Other airlines have cut down check-in allowances of course. Delta has gone from two bags to one for basic travelers (though the Silver Medallion folks get three for free). It has also upped its fees for pet transportation, which we found out the hard way. American Airlines announced a similar fee in May.

The fee should apply to one in three customers United says. The company expects to make $225 million in the first year from the added fee.

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Jun 04 2008

Volunteering with BizWorld

Published by Alex under Uncategorized

I was lucky enough to have a chance to teach a class of fifth graders about entrepreneurship and business ethics in Sunnyvale, Calif. this morning through BizWorld. I was stunned that when I asked them to name companies they’d heard of, the class came up with SanDisk…

BizWorld Volunteering

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